OF Redux

This is an update of this post.

OF continues down the multilateral currency road.  In spite of many electrons being spilled, just how the BRICs are supposed to accomplish this remains unexplained.  One member (Russia) is failing in its war against a measurably inferior opponent and and is dancing with a demographic death spiral (although Putin's takeover the the US may buy some time).  One member (China) is so desperate to distract everyone, foreign and domestic, from its being history's largest Potemkin Village, it's preparing to invade Taiwan in 2027 or early 2028.  One member (India) is so insecure about its currency it's trying to eliminate cash.  One member (Brazil) is simply mired in a multi-pronged inability to function (although Trump's tariffs may give it a boost).  And as OF has reported, China has just issued a new round of bonds denominated in US$.  Not the surest way to break the US$ as the reserve currency.  I don't see anything, BRIC or otherwise, remotely capable of replacing US$, even as part of a basket of currencies.

Do I think US$ is undefeatable?  Absolutely not.  Bad Vlad has done a very good job of putting a mob of ticking bombs in the US government.  By the time Trump is done this time, I think everything that made the US function will have been plundered and pillaged, and the US$ will be irretrievably broken.  So the US will lose; that doesn't mean anyone will win.  By 2034 the whole world could look like Central Europe in 1634.  Only worse, because all attempts to stop climate change will have fallen by the wayside.

So while I expect US$ to fall, I do not expect it to be replaced.  If there's no global economy, who needs a global reserve currency?