Beware Experts Who Aren't

Campbell Harvey, finance professor at the Duke business school, is an expert.  He must be, it says so right on his CV.  He also supposedly has a perfect track record for calling recessions.  He just put that record at serious risk.  He thinks the current economic crater will be over by the end of the year.  And he thinks that largely because he believes the world will know by then that we'll have a vaccine for SARS-COV-2 in Q1 2021.

Folks, there isn't an epidemiologist on Earth who believes we'll have a vaccine that quickly.  The good professor may know a lot about business finance, but he knows so little about epidemiology he doesn't even know how little he knows (See Dunning-Kruger Effect.).  I've helped a few biotech companies get started, but that in no way makes me an expert in research pathology.  So the next time some supposed expert starts giving an opinion, do what we do in court (or at least what we're supposed to do in court): Determine whether the opinion fits within the expert's field of expertise.  If it doesn't, you might as well be getting an opinion from the next person you meet on the street.  Or one of my cats.  Probably the brain-damaged one.

Brighton High School Redux

As I mentioned previously, Brighton High School (Deep Space Brighton) is being torn down and replaced by a generic box.  The process is now well under way, and it really is shaping up to be just the sort of thing you eyes will slide right off of.  This sort of thing has become so pervasive, I have adopted a new standard for architectural aesthetics: the Ruin Test.  When the building falls to ruin, what will the people living then think of it?  Will it still be interesting like the ones we now have in Greece, Egypt, Thailand, or Mexico?  Or will it be something they'll want to scrape off into a dump as quickly as possible?  I have a good idea where all our ugly boxes are heading.  The only question is whether there will be enough landfill space.

Law Enfarcement

OK, I'm going to pitch in on the general train wreck surrounding us, but first I have to make this comment based on a recent case.  A word of advice to law enforcement people: Before you write up another creative report trying to make the subject of a traffic stop look like the worst thing since Ted Bundy and claiming he threatened you by spinning his wheels and spraying gravel at you, you might want to remember that the days of rear-wheel-drive vehicles are gone and look into the spray patterns of front-wheel-drive.  Otherwise some defense counsel is going to get you on the stand and make you look like an idiot.  A lying idiot.