Sunday, December 15, 2024

Actual Real Estate Stuff

Yeah, believe it or not.

First, ag land auctions.  Currently these are mostly retirement and estate sales with some foreclosures and bankruptcies mixed in.  Iowa is currently loaded with $15,000+/acre auction prices.  Even though commodity prices are flat and expenses are up.  Even though the American Bankers Association thinks only half of ag borrowers will be in the black in 2025.  So what's going on?  I have a strong suspicion the bigs are getting bigger.  They have cash and can get their hands on more, and they're turning it into dirt.  So yet more family farms are landing in the hands of agribusiness.  Which bodes ill for surviving small farmers, consumers, soil, water quality, name it.

Now on to office space.  Most law firms I know are reducing their footprint.  No reason not to given how much we can do remotely.  But the bigs are entering into big, new leases.  Why?  Because they can.  Because they know the legal industry is changing dramatically, and size means survival.  Because their corporate clients want image and are willing to pay for it.  Because they have hammerlocks on their employees and can force on-site work.

What we're seeing is yet more asset concentration to the detriment of all the rest of us.  I won't call this neo-feudalism, though, because it isn't.  There is no interlocking system of rights and responsibilities.  The rights have all floated up the hill, and the responsibilities have all rolled down it.  There are no holidays.  We're on call all the time.  There are no commons we have access to.  Any possible Third Space either has an admission fee or is locked down entirely.  We aren't peasants.  We're serfs.

Friday, December 13, 2024

OF Redux

This is an update of this post.

OF continues down the multilateral currency road.  In spite of many electrons being spilled, just how the BRICs are supposed to accomplish this remains unexplained.  One member (Russia) is failing in its war against a measurably inferior opponent and and is dancing with a demographic death spiral (although Putin's takeover the the US may buy some time).  One member (China) is so desperate to distract everyone, foreign and domestic, from its being history's largest Potemkin Village, it's preparing to invade Taiwan in 2027 or early 2028.  One member (India) is so insecure about its currency it's trying to eliminate cash.  One member (Brazil) is simply mired in a multi-pronged inability to function (although Trump's tariffs may give it a boost).  And as OF has reported, China has just issued a new round of bonds denominated in US$.  Not the surest way to break the US$ as the reserve currency.  I don't see anything, BRIC or otherwise, remotely capable of replacing US$, even as part of a basket of currencies.

Do I think US$ is undefeatable?  Absolutely not.  Bad Vlad has done a very good job of putting a mob of ticking bombs in the US government.  By the time Trump is done this time, I think everything that made the US function will have been plundered and pillaged, and the US$ will be irretrievably broken.  So the US will lose; that doesn't mean anyone will win.  By 2034 the whole world could look like Central Europe in 1634.  Only worse, because all attempts to stop climate change will have fallen by the wayside.

So while I expect US$ to fall, I do not expect it to be replaced.  If there's no global economy, who needs a global reserve currency?

He's Baaaack

Awhile back I posted about Mikkel Thorup and his "advice".  Shortly after that, his incessant emails dried up.  No loss.  Then a couple of months ago I got a promo email.  Shortly after that, I received another "newsletter" type thing.  And it looks like he and his tools have only gotten worse.

First, he's completely come out as a COVID denier who believes "woke" is destroying civilization.  Second, he's using that fear-mongering to sell his latest grift, Veritas Villages scattered throughout developing nations, where you can live independent of "government" grids because you have your own water and power and apparently (though Thorup of course doesn't mention point of course) your own staff of locals to maintain all this because you sure as Hells aren't going to.  In other words, rank neocolonialism.  Not that the types who buy into this rubbish see anything wrong with that.

The other big drum he's beating is for Pavel Durov, the Russian tech bro who arrested in France in August.  According to Thorup, Durov was arrested because he protected free speech.  According to France and its case filings, it was because Durov refused to cooperate with investigations into criminal activities on his Telegram platform.  I would note that crime is not free speech, at least not when it's fraud, drug dealing, trafficking, and political hits, so it doesn't really look like Durov was protecting free speech.  But the truth wouldn't help Thorup's sales pitch.

Monday, October 21, 2024

Old Friend Is Off The Rails

As I have noted before, I have an Old Friend (OF) whose opinion I've always respected.  In the prior post I disagreed with OF, sharply.  The latest evidence, though, indicates OF has become a complete Putintute and shill, confirming the fear I voiced in the prior post, that OF had found a couple of new "friends" in the Middle East.

It began a couple of months ago when OF announced a new role, economic and finance commentator on CGTN (Chinese Global Television Network), an international propaganda organ for the CCP and PRC.  This was followed closely by a piece on how the national debt will lead to hyperinflation (Given, if Trump is re-elected, his disastrous economic "policies", which include more tax breaks for oligarchs which would in turn balloon the debt, could well cause a collapse.  But it would take the full shit tsunami that is Trump; the debt alone does not get us there.  OF is effectively rejecting Modern Monetary Theory.  Why?  More on that below.).

Then about a month ago came a comment that really had me scratching my head.  OF started bitching about the effect on the London Stock Exchange of International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) regulations.  IOSCO is basically there to coordinate among different securities regulators, making legitimate financing easier and illegitimate financing more difficult.  It's well known London has been a hub of money laundering since Tommy Pitt practically invented it during his side hustles from the East India Company over 300 years ago.  And it got worse after Maggoty Trencher.  Until the UK joined IOSCO and had to seriously shore up its enforcement.  Why would OF be against that?  As I've said, I'm afraid OF picked up some new friends in the desert.

Then just last week, things ramped up.  OF started promoting the BRIC (Read: Russian.) position of dedollarization, attacking the US's freezing of Russian assets in response to the invasion of Ukraine, and beating the drum for a recent report from Russia that claimed Putin wants there to be no reserve currencies.  Right.  First, Brazil, Russia, India, and China are in no position to make this happen.  If the US and the West fail, and Putin is quite obviously trying to make that happen, the BRICs won't step in.  Civilization will just collapse.  Second, if you think Bad Vlad does not intend to replace US$ with a currency or basket of currencies he controls, I have some oceanfront property in Yuma, AZ, to sell you.

Sorry OF, but I seriously don't trust what you're saying anymore.

Wednesday, November 08, 2023

This Looks Like the Opposite of an Opportunity

Saw this today.

First, Whitney didn't predict squat. She "predicted" that Citigroup was in trouble in Fall 2007 a week before Chuck Prince resigned and that Merrill Lynch and Lehman were in trouble two weeks before they collapsed. That's called being Captain Obvious. I started telling people to get out of real estate in December 2005, ratcheted it up in December 2006, and set off flares in April 2007. Where's my genius award?

Second, given the cost of financing and the lack of regulation of buyers, all this opportunity is going to do is going to do is concentrate yet more wealth in the hands of the 1%.

Tuesday, July 04, 2023

Putin in Dresden

OK, let's see if we can connect a few dots.  We know Bad Vlad was in Dresden in the late 80s (just what his brief was remains an open question).  We know the KGB was running revolutionary groups out of Dresden (Red Army Faction, Baader-Meinhoff, PLFP).  We know the KGB was running out of Dresden rather than Berlin because they thought there were no prying, Western eyes in Dresden (It probably kept the operation away from prying, GRU eyes as well.  And Stasi.  Apparently much of this was done without Stasi's approval or even knowledge.  At the very least, it gave Stasi plausible deniability.).  We know they kept the operation records in Dresden, close to the vest (only summaries going to Berlin and Moscow), and the operations included bombings and assassinations in the West.  We know that in the late 80s a number of KGB officers saw the writing on the wall and started preparing for their personal futures by setting up entities in the West and skimming Soviet money into them.

And we know that in December 1989, Bad Vlad suddenly emerges from behind the curtain in full hero mode.  The Berlin Wall had fallen the month before, and an angry mob that had been busily tearing apart the Dresden Stasi HQ started turning its attention to the nearby KGB HQ.  Putin bluffed the mob into jogging on, protecting the facility (Accounts differ on whether he was brandishing a pistol.  Putin himself has never claimed to have been armed.).

Now we get to the speculative parts.  Just what was Putin doing there?  Actual information is thin on the ground (more on that in a bit).  This lack of information has led the usual suspects to conclude Putin deliberately destroyed the records to hide he was chief of Black Ops at the Dresden station.  Ahem.  People, sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.  Putin's career before and immediately after Dresden does not support this grandiose conspiracy theory.  Bad Vlad was the guy who carried the briefcase for the actual players.  Did he work with the officers who handled the foreign revolutionaries?  Yes.  Was he himself the show runner, or even a show runner.  Let's just call it unlikely and leave it at that.

As to the lack of documents, Putin himself has said he along with everyone else was burning documents as fast as they could, which appears to be true as far as it goes.  There is very little documentation concerning anyone who was operating at the Dresden station.  Most of our information on Dresden comes from three types of sources: 1) KGB associates of various sorts who flipped prior to Putin's being there and so could not have known about Putin's activity; 2) KGB associates of various sorts who are selling memoirs and such; and 3) people who may or may not have been in the revolutionary groups and may or may not have been to Dresden but who are more than willing to talk about it in an effort to rehabilitate themselves.  Little of this information can be corroborated, and even less can stand on its own without corroboration.  Except perhaps for those who just want to attract readers and viewers, as opposed to those trying to parse actual information from fool's gold.

So what happened in Dresden in December 1989-January 1990?  All evidence indicates a massive amount of documents were destroyed.  But suppose that isn't the whole story (Try to contain your shock.).  Suppose an ambitious, reasonably intelligent, and in his mind underappreciated KGB officer saw a number of those documents and didn't see "security risk" but "leverage".  Here were a pile of Soviet officials, including who knows who many KGB officers, with their fingerprints all over "third-party" wet operations in the West.  Officials and officers who were now trying to make nice with the West, even find soft landings there.  Landings that would get a whole lot bumpier if Western authorities learned of their parts in killing Western citizens.

So this KGB officer packages up these gold nuggets, perhaps with the assistance of a couple of close associates, but how to move them?  Certainly not through KGB channels.  Enter Major General Horst Boehm, Stasi chief for the Dresden district and the KGB officer's long-standing local contact.  Unlike Putin, Boehm had been unable to protect Stasi HQ, and it was royally trashed to his chagrin and shame.  It was apparent to Boehm the game was up and he needed friends in other places.  Whatever the KGB officer threw at him, Boehm slurped it up with a big spoon.  So he moved the documents to Destination Unknown on one of Stasi's rapidly crumbling and therefore unsupervised mule trains.  Probably via Rotterdam, but that's experience talking, not evidence.

Corroboration?  None.  You see, in February 1990 Boehm and two of his district chief colleagues became so depressed and ashamed over everything that they "committed suicide".  Am I alleging our KGB officer had them whacked after their services were delivered?  Absolutely not; there's no way he had that kind of pull.  Boehm was terminated with extreme prejudice because, among his efforts to cultivate friends in the West, he devised a plan to leverage his knowledge of the complicity of Dutch and Swedish officials in East Germany's international arms smuggling.  Boehm's two colleagues were probably in on it, but that's fuzzier.  The only question is how anyone with sufficient muscle to hit three secure targets in an East Germany still crawling with Soviet military and security forces found out about Boehm's plan.

His documents secured and Dresden station being cooked, our KGB officer is transferred to Leningrad.  From there he blackmails his way up the ladder, builds a coterie of cronies around him, and takes command.  And becomes filthy rich in the process.

The interesting question before us now is, "What has changed?"  Why is Putin no longer concerned about burning down whole wings of the house, ranging from foreign relations to former friends?  I figure the options are as follows, and they aren't mutually exclusive: 1) He figures he's so powerful he no longer has to rely on the Dresden docs; 2) He figures he's so powerful the gang he built around himself using the Dresden docs is expendable; 3) The people who could have been threatened by the Dresden docs are now all gone, the docs are now irrelevant, and any part of his power still based on those docs needs shifted.  I recommend that intelligence agencies focus on researching those points.

Saturday, June 24, 2023

Russia 24.06.2023, Noon, What We Know

1) Yesterday Prigozhin said he was fed up with the Russian Army attacking Wagner Group and intended to overthrow the Ministry of Defense. FSB announced what must actually have been going on for several months, namely a criminal investigation of Prigozhian.

2) Last night Putin gave FSB free rein to deal with Prigozhian. Putin then flew out of Moscow. The destination was ostensibly St. Petersburg, but the flight turned off all tracking on takeoff and undoubtedly went to Valdai. That Putin flew rather than taking the armored train on his private rail line would indicate a certain urgency.

3) Earlier today Wagner Group captured Rostov-on-Don and headed up the M4 for Moscow, meeting little resistance. Wagner Group has since captured Voronezh. At least one of Wagner Group's original positions yesterday was adjacent to a GU battalion, but the GU did not interdict.
4) While Wagner Group has supplies and anti-aircraft weapons, it does not have air or logistical support. From this it is reasonable to conclude Wagner Group must attain quick successes with resulting defections and civil unrest.

5) Yesterday a possible propaganda campaign for Prigozhian may have been to claim he was trying to remove the incompetent and criminal generals so Russia could have an honorable peace. With Putin having acted, Prigozhian must aim higher, perhaps manipulating those generals to state publicly they were only following orders that came directly from the top of the government. This might undermine the popular image of Putin and his circle.

6) Given FSB's brief from Putin, if Wagner Group reaches Moscow, it must immediately seize FSB headquarters along with the Ministry of Defense.

Update 1300: Prigozhian has agreed to stand Wagner Group down.  One of two things will now happen: A) Wagner Group will be sandbagged; B) Putin will purge the Ministry of Defense and General Staff.  Whichever happens, it will not preclude the other from eventually happening.

Wednesday, March 15, 2023

Yet More Bank Garbage

Trump and his minions are claiming the recent bank failures were caused because those banks were "woke".  As with everything else having to do with their use of that word 1) it's meaningless, and 2) it's just being thrown out there to provide cover for the accusers' wrongdoings.

Immediately after taking office, Trump took steps to "relieve community banks" from the evils of Dodd-Frank.  SVB was a community bank the way Elim Garak was a plain, simple tailor.  Once again Der Drumpfenfuehrer and the Reich Wing Media are lying.  There is no way they can connect these dots so they have meaning for anyone other than their tin-foil-hat minions.  The actual dots lead straight to Trump.  In standard GOP form, Trump lifted a bunch of Dodd-Frank liquidity regulations for no reason other than "Regulations BAD!"  (If I were to let my more cynical side run, I could say he also did so to facilitate grift by financial executives, but....).  SVB, which had become Deposit and Clearing Central for a number of crypto companies, now had effectively all of its cash reserve requirements removed.  SVB took the newly freed cash and put it with most of its other investments, buying long Treasury bonds (This was actually a fairly prudent move.  Under normal circumstances.).  Then FTX failed, and seismic shock waves moved through the crypto community.  People decided to cash out of crypto, and the crypto companies had to make large withdrawals from their SVB accounts to cover.  So the run wasn't actually on SVB; it was on the cryptos, who then made withdrawals on their accounts.  The problem was SVB didn't have the cash on hand.  It had to raise it, and that meant selling its Treasury bond positions.  Unfortunately, the Fed has been raising interest rates, and when that happens the value of older bonds goes down because they have the older, lower rates.  SVB had to sell its bond positions at a discount, which left it short.  Also unfortunately, much of the rest of its investment positions were loans back to its depositors, and since those loans had been made with the deposits that were now being drawn on, SVB had a liquidity loop going nowhere.   On top of that SVB was going to have to mark these investments to market, and since they had lost value, that meant its assets would have to be written down.  It was teetering on insolvency when DFPI and FDIC walked in.  This doesn't address some the shadier insider moves, nor does it address just how much cash reserve would have been needed to shield SVB from its crypto positions, but Trump's moves definitely let SVB's executives bury it roof-deep in a mud hole.